BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Bluebird In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsForest birds

Western Bluebird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-76%Since 1970
5Routes In Region
46Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Western Bluebird has collapsed in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 115% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±272.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+115%Change by 2029
0.14Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.4595% range
±272.6%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.150.000.45
20260.150.000.45
20270.150.000.45
20280.140.000.45
20290.140.000.45

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Western Bluebird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
OnyxCALIFORNIA42001
BarstowCALIFORNIA31998
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA22024
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA11977
PearblossomCALIFORNIA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.