BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Bluebird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Western Bluebird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-43%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Bluebird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Western Bluebird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 92% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.12–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+92%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 92% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.12–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.132.2
20271.10.122.2
20281.10.122.2
20291.10.122.2
20301.10.122.2

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Western Bluebird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SawmillARIZONA332014
The GapARIZONA271976
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO212012
La Sal 2UTAH122006
TsaileARIZONA112023
PecosNEW-MEXICO112017
Bryce CanyonUTAH92025
TarryallCOLORADO82025
Cow SpringsARIZONA72022
MoffatCOLORADO71993
GuffeyCOLORADO72025
Blackhead PkCOLORADO72021
Stinking Lk.NEW-MEXICO71999
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO72021
Pleasant ViewCOLORADO62021
NuclaCOLORADO62024
CebollaNEW-MEXICO62023
TorreonNEW-MEXICO62023
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO62000
DragertonUTAH61998
ShivwitzUTAH62015
CastletonCOLORADO51992
AnimasCOLORADO52003
BlandingUTAH52025
La Sal 3UTAH52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.