BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Warbling Vireo In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Warbling Vireo in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+129%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Warbling Vireo In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.7–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.7–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.63.3
20262.51.63.3
20272.51.63.4
20282.51.73.4
20292.51.73.4

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrownvilleILLINOIS112019
CentertonARKANSAS102024
YorkILLINOIS102024
SpencerINDIANA102024
BrazilINDIANA92024
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY92023
PleasurevillKENTUCKY92024
WoodlandvilleMISSOURI92024
BirdsILLINOIS82024
GlencoeKENTUCKY82018
NewberryINDIANA72024
MerrimacKENTUCKY72024
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY72021
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY72023
Million 2KENTUCKY72024
WhitewaterMISSOURI72024
RoyaltonILLINOIS62024
WashingtonINDIANA62024
Indian SpgsINDIANA62024
Clear SpringINDIANA62024
BoxvilleKENTUCKY61983
ShelbyvilleKENTUCKY61978
Buena VistaKENTUCKY62017
BremenILLINOIS52024
PimentoINDIANA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.