BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Warbling Vireo In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Warbling Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+153%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
271Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 3.5–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 3.5–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.03.34.8
20264.13.34.9
20274.13.44.9
20284.23.45.0
20294.23.55.0

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelleviewILLINOIS342024
WashtaIOWA322014
McfallMISSOURI202024
WallaceINDIANA152024
Duncan MillsILLINOIS122024
EldredILLINOIS122021
MurdockNEBRASKA122024
ChandlervillILLINOIS112024
MackinawILLINOIS112024
College Spgs 2IOWA112023
PaysonILLINOIS102024
UnionILLINOIS102017
WabashINDIANA102024
Red RockIOWA102024
New PointMISSOURI102024
Kahoka2MISSOURI102024
GretnaNEBRASKA102018
BartonvilleILLINOIS92024
AldenILLINOIS92023
EubanksILLINOIS92024
MaquoketaIOWA92024
AliceIOWA91999
LucerneMISSOURI92021
WilmingtonOHIO91996
River FallsWISCONSIN92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.