BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Warbling Vireo In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Warbling Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+163%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
273Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Warbling Vireo In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.3 (95% range 3.5–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.3 (95% range 3.5–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.13.34.9
20274.23.44.9
20284.23.45.0
20294.33.55.0
20304.33.55.1

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelleviewILLINOIS262025
MurdockNEBRASKA212025
Terre HauteILLINOIS172025
LurayMISSOURI172025
Mt HamillIOWA162025
WallaceINDIANA152024
AthensvilleILLINOIS142025
River FallsWISCONSIN142025
GeneseoILLINOIS132025
BartonvilleILLINOIS132025
ConcordILLINOIS132025
PaysonILLINOIS132025
New PointMISSOURI132025
BradburyILLINOIS122025
DudleyvilleILLINOIS122025
Gretna 2NEBRASKA122025
WilliamsfldILLINOIS112025
UnionILLINOIS102017
EubanksILLINOIS102025
Red RockIOWA102025
Kahoka2MISSOURI102024
GretnaNEBRASKA102018
HumboldtNEBRASKA102025
HumboldtILLINOIS92025
JamestownILLINOIS92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.