BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Violet-green Swallow In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Violet-green Swallow in Great Basin has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-20%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
192Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Violet-green Swallow in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Violet-green Swallow In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Great Basin is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 1.8–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Great Basin is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 1.8–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.41.75.1
20273.41.75.1
20283.41.75.2
20293.51.75.2
20303.51.85.2

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Violet-green Swallow in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TwispWASHINGTON992024
YakimaWASHINGTON922025
OrdnanceOREGON691978
ImnahaOREGON482025
Magic MtnIDAHO422025
LeavenworthWASHINGTON372024
Meadow VallyNEVADA332025
HyrumUTAH331979
Hardware RanchUTAH282018
Pine CreekUTAH252013
RanchograndeNEVADA221991
AlmoIDAHO212025
SelahWASHINGTON202019
IngallsCALIFORNIA171973
EllensburgWASHINGTON162024
KendallWASHINGTON152025
Malheur NwrOREGON131991
Bald Mtn.NEVADA122025
NewhalemWASHINGTON122025
Dougal ResIDAHO112025
BickletonWASHINGTON112019
Rye PatchNEVADA101974
Catlow RimOREGON102016
NewcastleUTAH102022
SnowdenWASHINGTON102025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.