BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Violet-green Swallow In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Violet-green Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Violet-green Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Violet-green Swallow In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.5 (95% range 5.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.5 (95% range 5.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.95.712
20268.85.612
20278.75.512
20288.65.412
20298.55.312

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Violet-green Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sandy RiverOREGON922006
Port AngelesWASHINGTON792024
South ElmaWASHINGTON512024
GlasgowOREGON482024
Pe EllWASHINGTON472023
WinberryOREGON412023
GarfieldOREGON352023
RaymondWASHINGTON312021
HauserOREGON291985
SewardALASKA281992
EverettWASHINGTON272024
CoquilleOREGON262024
TaholahWASHINGTON252022
ScioOREGON222024
ElktonOREGON222024
Hazel CampOREGON202022
Secret ValOREGON202022
SantiamOREGON202024
MukilteoWASHINGTON202024
DerbyOREGON191993
Fish RockCALIFORNIA182014
SaladoOREGON182024
SvensenOREGON181992
CamasWASHINGTON182018
CarnationWASHINGTON182024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.