BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Violet-green Swallow In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Violet-green Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-27%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Violet-green Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Violet-green Swallow In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.6 (95% range 5.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.6 (95% range 5.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.95.712
20278.85.612
20288.75.512
20298.75.512
20308.65.412

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Violet-green Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sandy RiverOREGON922006
Port AngelesWASHINGTON842025
South ElmaWASHINGTON512024
RainierWASHINGTON512025
Pe EllWASHINGTON482025
ElktonOREGON472025
Thompson PasALASKA422025
WinberryOREGON412023
GarfieldOREGON342025
CoquilleOREGON322025
RaymondWASHINGTON312021
HauserOREGON291985
GlasgowOREGON292025
SewardALASKA281992
TaholahWASHINGTON252022
GreenwaterWASHINGTON232025
Bunker HillWASHINGTON222025
KamilcheWASHINGTON212025
Hazel CampOREGON202022
DerbyOREGON191993
Fish RockCALIFORNIA182014
TualatinOREGON182025
SvensenOREGON181992
CamasWASHINGTON182018
LoraneOREGON172025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.