BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Violet-green Swallow In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Aerial insectivores

Violet-green Swallow in BCR 4 has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+70%Since 1978
53Routes In Region
45Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Violet-green Swallow has risen sharply in BCR 4: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029
0.91Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.495% range
±36.5%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.10.003.6
20261.00.003.5
20270.990.003.5
20280.950.003.5
20290.910.003.4

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Violet-green Swallow in BCR 4.
MatanuskaALASKA141983
EagleALASKA132024
WillowALASKA112024
Kenny LakeALASKA112024
ChistochinaALASKA102022
KachemakALASKA102024
CircleALASKA82011
Anchor RiverALASKA82024
Kanuti CanynALASKA82024
HomerALASKA51982
McgrathALASKA52022
TatalinaALASKA52019
ChickenALASKA42024
DeltaALASKA42007
Paxson LakeALASKA41995
Goose BayALASKA31982
Hatcher PassALASKA32017
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA32013
Lake LouiseALASKA32005
PetersvilleALASKA32012
ColdfootALASKA32022
Donelly DomeALASKA32011
CottonwoodALASKA31989
Manley Ht SpALASKA32022
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA32021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.