Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Vesper Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains
Vesper Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-97%Since 1968
190Routes In Region
58Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Vesper Sparrow has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±685.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.5695% range
±685.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
Routes In Appalachian Mountains
| Whitney Pt | NEW-YORK | 7 | 1972 |
| Oxford | NEW-YORK | 6 | 1967 |
| Meadowbrook | OHIO | 6 | 2001 |
| Needmore | PENNSYLVANIA | 6 | 1991 |
| Ravensburg | PENNSYLVANIA | 5 | 1966 |
| Brunnerville | PENNSYLVANIA | 5 | 2009 |
| Pottersdale | PENNSYLVANIA | 4 | 1994 |
| Normalville | PENNSYLVANIA | 4 | 1970 |
| Big Flat | PENNSYLVANIA | 4 | 1981 |
| Sleepy Creek | WEST-VIRGINIA | 4 | 1981 |
| Williamsport | MARYLAND | 3 | 2023 |
| Lisle | NEW-YORK | 3 | 1980 |
| Winterset | OHIO | 3 | 1972 |
| Mifflintown | PENNSYLVANIA | 3 | 2002 |
| Carsonville | PENNSYLVANIA | 3 | 2016 |
| Quakertown | PENNSYLVANIA | 3 | 1972 |
| Jeannette | PENNSYLVANIA | 3 | 2022 |
| Smoot | WEST-VIRGINIA | 3 | 1986 |
| Vindex | MARYLAND | 2 | 2005 |
| Steyer | MARYLAND | 2 | 2012 |
| Medusa | NEW-YORK | 2 | 1981 |
| Cobleskill | NEW-YORK | 2 | 1978 |
| Cattaraugus | NEW-YORK | 2 | 1978 |
| East Java | NEW-YORK | 2 | 1976 |
| Greasy Ridge | OHIO | 2 | 1979 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.