BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-97%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
190Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vesper Sparrow has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Vesper Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±685.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±685.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±685.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.56
20260.000.000.56
20270.000.000.56
20280.000.000.56
20290.000.000.56

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitney PtNEW-YORK71972
OxfordNEW-YORK61967
MeadowbrookOHIO62001
NeedmorePENNSYLVANIA61991
RavensburgPENNSYLVANIA51966
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA52009
PottersdalePENNSYLVANIA41994
NormalvillePENNSYLVANIA41970
Big FlatPENNSYLVANIA41981
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA41981
WilliamsportMARYLAND32023
LisleNEW-YORK31980
WintersetOHIO31972
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA32002
CarsonvillePENNSYLVANIA32016
QuakertownPENNSYLVANIA31972
JeannettePENNSYLVANIA32022
SmootWEST-VIRGINIA31986
VindexMARYLAND22005
SteyerMARYLAND22012
MedusaNEW-YORK21981
CobleskillNEW-YORK21978
CattaraugusNEW-YORK21978
East JavaNEW-YORK21976
Greasy RidgeOHIO21979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.