BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Vesper Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-97%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
190Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vesper Sparrow has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Vesper Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±730.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±730.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±730.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.56
20270.000.000.56
20280.000.000.56
20290.000.000.56
20300.000.000.56

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitney PtNEW-YORK71972
OxfordNEW-YORK61967
MeadowbrookOHIO62001
NeedmorePENNSYLVANIA61991
RavensburgPENNSYLVANIA51966
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA52009
WilliamsportMARYLAND42025
PottersdalePENNSYLVANIA41994
NormalvillePENNSYLVANIA41970
Big FlatPENNSYLVANIA41981
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA41981
LisleNEW-YORK31980
WintersetOHIO31972
St CollegePENNSYLVANIA32025
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA32002
CarsonvillePENNSYLVANIA32016
QuakertownPENNSYLVANIA31972
JeannettePENNSYLVANIA32022
SmootWEST-VIRGINIA31986
VindexMARYLAND22005
SteyerMARYLAND22012
MedusaNEW-YORK21981
CobleskillNEW-YORK21978
CattaraugusNEW-YORK21978
East JavaNEW-YORK21976

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.