BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
149Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vesper Sparrow has collapsed in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Vesper Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.002.1
20260.000.002.0
20270.000.002.0
20280.000.002.0
20290.000.002.0

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BismarkOHIO291995
KewannaINDIANA222022
PackertownINDIANA111993
OwendaleMICHIGAN111994
EdwardsMINNESOTA112024
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN102023
KnappMINNESOTA92019
LaporteINDIANA82023
CaledoniaMINNESOTA81996
AshbyMINNESOTA82021
MerideanWISCONSIN82024
HudsonWISCONSIN72024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN72024
BriggsvilleWISCONSIN72024
N BaltimoreOHIO62018
OlaMICHIGAN52024
New BuffaloMICHIGAN52014
ChatfieldMINNESOTA51999
PrincetonMINNESOTA52024
St StephenMINNESOTA52016
Le CenterMINNESOTA52023
New LondonMINNESOTA52024
WhitewaterMINNESOTA52000
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN52022
N FreedomWISCONSIN52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.