BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-91%Since 1968
149Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Vesper Sparrow has collapsed in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.095% range
±66.2%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.140.002.1
20260.000.002.0
20270.000.002.0
20280.000.002.0
20290.000.002.0

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
BismarkOHIO291995
KewannaINDIANA222022
PackertownINDIANA111993
OwendaleMICHIGAN111994
EdwardsMINNESOTA112024
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN102023
KnappMINNESOTA92019
LaporteINDIANA82023
CaledoniaMINNESOTA81996
AshbyMINNESOTA82021
MerideanWISCONSIN82024
HudsonWISCONSIN72024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN72024
BriggsvilleWISCONSIN72024
N BaltimoreOHIO62018
OlaMICHIGAN52024
New BuffaloMICHIGAN52014
ChatfieldMINNESOTA51999
PrincetonMINNESOTA52024
St StephenMINNESOTA52016
Le CenterMINNESOTA52023
New LondonMINNESOTA52024
WhitewaterMINNESOTA52000
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN52022
N FreedomWISCONSIN52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.