BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+31%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Vesper Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 14–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 14–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221431
2026221431
2027221431
2028221431
2029221431

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RedstoneMONTANA1842024
WhitlashMONTANA1322024
Hay LakeMONTANA742022
WestbyMONTANA712024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA652024
SunburstMONTANA622007
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA582024
ClevelandMONTANA542024
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA542024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA452024
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA452019
VirgelleMONTANA442024
ShelbyMONTANA442024
WorthingtonMINNESOTA432024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA432024
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA422024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA402024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA402024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA402024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA392023
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA381983
AppletonMINNESOTA372024
GildfordMONTANA372024
BeltramiMINNESOTA362024
OswegoMONTANA362024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.