BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Vesper Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Vesper Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 14–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 14–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221431
2027231431
2028231431
2029231431
2030231431

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WhitlashMONTANA1322024
RedstoneMONTANA1222025
WestbyMONTANA1032025
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA872025
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA842025
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA672025
ShelbyMONTANA642025
SunburstMONTANA622007
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA532025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA532025
GildfordMONTANA522025
AppletonMINNESOTA452025
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA452025
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA452019
WorthingtonMINNESOTA432025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA422025
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA412025
Redwood FallMINNESOTA392025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA392025
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA392023
BeltramiMINNESOTA382025
GlentanaMONTANA382025
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA381983
FairmontMINNESOTA372025
ClevelandMONTANA372025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.