BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Upland Sandpiper In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±974.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2020TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2020 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±974.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±974.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662020
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20160.000.000.05
20170.000.000.05
20180.000.000.05
20190.000.000.05
20200.000.000.05

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CumberlandOHIO51981
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA41980
CentervilleNEW-YORK31970
Big FlatPENNSYLVANIA31971
McdonoughNEW-YORK21972
East JavaNEW-YORK22008
N Pine GrovePENNSYLVANIA21971
Mt NeboMARYLAND11976
WilliamsportMARYLAND11992
SmithsburgMARYLAND11973
WolfsvilleMARYLAND11969
DrydenNEW-YORK12005
SwainNEW-YORK11992
GainesvilleNEW-YORK12010
CattaraugusNEW-YORK11973
Oxford 2NEW-YORK11994
Warwick 2NEW-YORK11992
OmegaOHIO11987
ParkwoodPENNSYLVANIA12015
SheloctaPENNSYLVANIA11998
RectorPENNSYLVANIA11970
MartinsburgPENNSYLVANIA11988
RydePENNSYLVANIA11971
JeffersonPENNSYLVANIA11976
NeedmorePENNSYLVANIA11980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.