BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Upland Sandpiper In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Upland Sandpiper In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±974.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2020TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2020 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±974.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±974.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662020
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20160.000.000.05
20170.000.000.05
20180.000.000.05
20190.000.000.05
20200.000.000.05

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CumberlandOHIO51981
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA41980
CentervilleNEW-YORK31970
Big FlatPENNSYLVANIA31971
McdonoughNEW-YORK21972
East JavaNEW-YORK22008
N Pine GrovePENNSYLVANIA21971
Mt NeboMARYLAND11976
WilliamsportMARYLAND11992
SmithsburgMARYLAND11973
WolfsvilleMARYLAND11969
DrydenNEW-YORK12005
SwainNEW-YORK11992
GainesvilleNEW-YORK12010
CattaraugusNEW-YORK11973
Oxford 2NEW-YORK11994
Warwick 2NEW-YORK11992
OmegaOHIO11987
ParkwoodPENNSYLVANIA12015
SheloctaPENNSYLVANIA11998
RectorPENNSYLVANIA11970
MartinsburgPENNSYLVANIA11988
RydePENNSYLVANIA11971
JeffersonPENNSYLVANIA11976
NeedmorePENNSYLVANIA11980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.