BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Upland Sandpiper In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Prairie Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has collapsed in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±322.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±322.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±322.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.25
20260.000.000.25
20270.000.000.25
20280.000.000.25
20290.000.000.25

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South BendINDIANA61973
HungerfordMICHIGAN32023
StratfordWISCONSIN32007
Buena VistaWISCONSIN32024
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN22003
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN21989
TyreMICHIGAN21988
RochesterMICHIGAN22005
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN22017
St StephenMINNESOTA21992
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA21993
NapoleonOHIO21994
GraytownOHIO21971
HolwayWISCONSIN21987
ManawaWISCONSIN21994
CascoWISCONSIN22019
Newburg CrnsWISCONSIN21994
WiotaWISCONSIN22003
GrimmsWISCONSIN22017
AnnatonWISCONSIN22019
GuilfordILLINOIS11994
Lake GalenaILLINOIS12014
KnoxINDIANA11989
KewannaINDIANA11992
EllisINDIANA11970

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.