BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Upland Sandpiper In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
171Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has fallen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Upland Sandpiper In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 66% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.12–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 66% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.12–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.870.181.6
20270.860.171.5
20280.840.151.5
20290.830.141.5
20300.810.121.5

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LincolnvilleKANSAS222024
ThrallKANSAS201970
WrefordKANSAS122024
GazaIOWA112025
LafayetteIOWA92015
StetMISSOURI91995
MonticelloILLINOIS82025
BarclayKANSAS72025
WalesIOWA62025
DaileyILLINOIS51996
West LibertyIOWA52024
WilliamsburgIOWA52008
DinsdaleIOWA52015
Rock ValleyIOWA52025
LaplandKANSAS52022
HamiltonMISSOURI51985
RichlandNEBRASKA52025
ForakerOKLAHOMA52025
Bluff SpgsILLINOIS42025
PawneeILLINOIS41971
WaynesvilleILLINOIS42018
WashtaIOWA42008
LongtonKANSAS42021
Le LoupKANSAS42012
LyonsNEBRASKA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.