BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Upland Sandpiper In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
168Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has fallen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Upland Sandpiper In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.86 (95% range 0.17–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.86 (95% range 0.17–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.910.231.6
20260.900.211.6
20270.890.201.6
20280.870.191.6
20290.860.171.5

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LincolnvilleKANSAS222024
ThrallKANSAS201970
ForakerOKLAHOMA142024
BarclayKANSAS132024
WrefordKANSAS122024
GazaIOWA102023
StillwellILLINOIS92024
LafayetteIOWA92015
StetMISSOURI91995
LyonsNEBRASKA92024
MonticelloILLINOIS62024
RichlandNEBRASKA62024
DaileyILLINOIS51996
W LafayetteINDIANA52024
West LibertyIOWA52024
WilliamsburgIOWA52008
WalesIOWA52018
DinsdaleIOWA52015
LaplandKANSAS52022
HamiltonMISSOURI51985
PawneeILLINOIS41971
WaynesvilleILLINOIS42018
WashtaIOWA42008
LongtonKANSAS42021
Le LoupKANSAS42012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.