BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Upland Sandpiper In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Prairie Potholes has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Upland Sandpiper in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Upland Sandpiper In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 3.8–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–9.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 3.8–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.83.89.8
20266.83.89.8
20276.83.89.8
20286.83.89.9
20296.93.89.9

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA542013
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA482019
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA442011
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA372024
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA341984
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA332023
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA322023
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA282024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA272023
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA272019
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA272024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA222024
RedstoneMONTANA162024
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA152014
KanawhaIOWA142024
SpartaNEBRASKA142021
TildenNEBRASKA142024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA142024
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA132014
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA132010
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA122024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA122024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA122024
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA112024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.