BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Upland Sandpiper In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-63%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Upland Sandpiper In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 97% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-97%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 97% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.000.20
20270.010.000.20
20280.010.000.19
20290.010.000.19
20300.000.000.19

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wolf CreekMONTANA82025
Muddy CreekMONTANA62015
ShirleyWYOMING61990
St MaryMONTANA32008
RaynesfordMONTANA32025
LaurelMONTANA22025
St. Mary 2MONTANA22025
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA22006
OttoWYOMING21974
Rock RiverWYOMING22006
AugustaMONTANA12022
LimaMONTANA12025
Heart ButteMONTANA12023
Freeman CreekMONTANA12016
GreenoughMONTANA11996
ClarkWYOMING12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.