BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Upland Sandpiper In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Northern Rockies has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-81%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has collapsed in Northern Rockies: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Upland Sandpiper In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.19
20260.010.000.19
20270.000.000.19
20280.000.000.19
20290.000.000.19

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Muddy CreekMONTANA62015
ShirleyWYOMING61990
St MaryMONTANA32008
LaurelMONTANA32013
St. Mary 2MONTANA22024
RaynesfordMONTANA22024
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA22006
OttoWYOMING21974
Rock RiverWYOMING22006
AugustaMONTANA12022
Heart ButteMONTANA12023
Wolf CreekMONTANA12022
Freeman CreekMONTANA12016
GreenoughMONTANA11996
ClarkWYOMING12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.