BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Upland Sandpiper In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Northern Rockies has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-81%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has collapsed in Northern Rockies: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.19
20260.010.000.19
20270.000.000.19
20280.000.000.19
20290.000.000.19

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Muddy CreekMONTANA62015
ShirleyWYOMING61990
St MaryMONTANA32008
LaurelMONTANA32013
St. Mary 2MONTANA22024
RaynesfordMONTANA22024
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA22006
OttoWYOMING21974
Rock RiverWYOMING22006
AugustaMONTANA12022
Heart ButteMONTANA12023
Wolf CreekMONTANA12022
Freeman CreekMONTANA12016
GreenoughMONTANA11996
ClarkWYOMING12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.