BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tufted Titmouse In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Tufted Titmouse in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+99%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
405Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tufted Titmouse has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Tufted Titmouse In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 14–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 14–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026151318
2027161418
2028161418
2029161418
2030161418

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Tufted Titmouse in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StevensonALABAMA682024
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY612024
RiversideALABAMA552013
Nat TunnelVIRGINIA552025
JenningsMARYLAND412025
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA412025
Mt OliveALABAMA392025
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY392018
ShanghaiWEST-VIRGINIA392025
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA372021
TalladegaALABAMA362025
DoverNEW-JERSEY362023
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA362025
Signal MtnTENNESSEE362025
HubbardstownWEST-VIRGINIA362025
ParadiseWEST-VIRGINIA352025
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA351990
GreensportALABAMA332025
ChoccoloccoALABAMA332025
CartersvilleGEORGIA332025
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA332025
HendersonWEST-VIRGINIA332023
Pine GroveALABAMA322025
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA312024
Hebron 2VIRGINIA312025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.