BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tufted Titmouse In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Tufted Titmouse in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+123%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tufted Titmouse has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Tufted Titmouse In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 12–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 12–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025141117
2026141117
2027141118
2028151218
2029151218

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Tufted Titmouse in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS432024
SaffellARKANSAS412019
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI382021
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA362024
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA362024
RamahLOUISIANA292024
South BendARKANSAS262023
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI252024
HughesARKANSAS242023
Rayville 2LOUISIANA222024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI212022
BardwellKENTUCKY202003
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE202023
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY192024
ShawLOUISIANA192024
MaynardARKANSAS182024
IsolaMISSISSIPPI182022
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI181994
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI182024
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI172022
MayflowerLOUISIANA162024
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI162018
KraemerLOUISIANA152024
ConcordLOUISIANA152019
TippoMISSISSIPPI152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.