BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tufted Titmouse In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Tufted Titmouse in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 190% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+190%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tufted Titmouse has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 190% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Tufted Titmouse In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.1–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.1–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.32.04.6
20263.32.04.6
20273.42.04.7
20283.42.14.7
20293.42.14.8

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Tufted Titmouse in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CohoctahMICHIGAN352024
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN282024
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN262024
GalesburgMICHIGAN152024
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN142012
LakevilleINDIANA122024
BeldingMICHIGAN112003
MontereyMICHIGAN112024
MottvilleMICHIGAN102024
HungerfordMICHIGAN102024
LapeerMICHIGAN102024
RochesterMICHIGAN102024
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN102019
BismarkOHIO101995
NashvilleMICHIGAN92024
PrattvilleMICHIGAN92021
AlmenaMICHIGAN92015
South BendINDIANA81991
KnoxINDIANA82024
BravoMICHIGAN82023
RemusMICHIGAN82024
PettysvilleMICHIGAN81979
Belding 2MICHIGAN82024
Indiana DuneINDIANA72024
LawrenceMICHIGAN72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.