BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tufted Titmouse In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Tufted Titmouse in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tufted Titmouse has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Tufted Titmouse In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 7.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 7.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.916
2026128.116
2027128.217
2028128.317
2029138.417

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Tufted Titmouse in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA512024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA462018
HeyburnOKLAHOMA362024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA282019
Oak GroveTEXAS281999
OsageTEXAS272006
NobleOKLAHOMA242024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS242024
SchroederTEXAS231997
ChoctawOKLAHOMA222023
Wills PointTEXAS212023
OakwoodTEXAS201995
LydiaTEXAS192023
TatumsOKLAHOMA182024
GreenvilleTEXAS182024
Oak Grove 2TEXAS172024
Miller GroveTEXAS152024
Blue RidgeTEXAS152024
BurtonTEXAS152024
BeggsOKLAHOMA132023
CayugaTEXAS132024
Thornton 2TEXAS132010
MuldoonTEXAS122024
Massey LakeTEXAS122024
PaigeTEXAS122024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.