BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tufted Titmouse In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Tufted Titmouse in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 369% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+369%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tufted Titmouse has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 369% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Tufted Titmouse In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 6.2–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–9.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 6.2–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.65.79.4
20267.75.89.5
20277.85.99.7
20287.96.19.8
20298.06.29.9

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Tufted Titmouse in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North EastonNEW-YORK292024
North PownalVERMONT292024
Herner CrnsOHIO252023
GarrettsvileOHIO221991
W ShokanNEW-YORK202019
HighlandNEW-YORK192022
DuanesburgNEW-YORK192024
HebronOHIO172024
CatskillsNEW-YORK162015
AusterlitzNEW-YORK152024
ShaftsburyVERMONT142024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK132024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK131995
LucerneOHIO132024
SalemNEW-YORK122024
MiddlefieldOHIO122017
CloverPENNSYLVANIA112024
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK102024
Canadice LNEW-YORK102024
CrescentNEW-YORK102024
GhentNEW-YORK82024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK82024
PenfieldNEW-YORK82024
ArgyleNEW-YORK82024
PittsfieldOHIO82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.