BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tufted Titmouse In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Tufted Titmouse in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 387% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+387%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tufted Titmouse has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 387% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Tufted Titmouse In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.2 (95% range 6.3–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.2 (95% range 6.3–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.75.99.6
20277.96.09.7
20288.06.19.8
20298.16.29.9
20308.26.310

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Tufted Titmouse in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShaftsburyVERMONT342025
North EastonNEW-YORK232025
GarrettsvileOHIO221991
NaplesNEW-YORK212025
W ShokanNEW-YORK202019
HighlandNEW-YORK192022
LucerneOHIO192025
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA182025
DuanesburgNEW-YORK172025
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA172025
North PownalVERMONT172025
CatskillsNEW-YORK162015
Canadice LNEW-YORK162025
HamburgNEW-YORK162025
BristolVERMONT162025
RhinebeckNEW-YORK152025
GhentNEW-YORK132025
Ballston LkNEW-YORK131995
AusterlitzNEW-YORK122025
PenfieldNEW-YORK122025
MiddlefieldOHIO122017
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK112025
CrescentNEW-YORK102024
CayugaNEW-YORK82025
TrumansburgNEW-YORK82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.