BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tufted Titmouse In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Tufted Titmouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 158% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+158%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tufted Titmouse has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 158% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Tufted Titmouse In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.03–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.03–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.020.27
20260.150.030.27
20270.150.030.28
20280.150.030.28
20290.160.030.28

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Tufted Titmouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear LakeMICHIGAN72024
HarriettaMICHIGAN62024
MayfieldMICHIGAN52022
Frederic 2MICHIGAN42007
Sand LakeMICHIGAN32023
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN22024
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN22017
SkeelsMICHIGAN22015
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN22024
HerronMICHIGAN22013
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN11997
Lake CityMICHIGAN12022
IronsMICHIGAN11972
FredericMICHIGAN12000
Red OakMICHIGAN12022
OberlinMICHIGAN12024
CathroMICHIGAN12011
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN11973
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN11994
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN12024
Union TwpWISCONSIN11997
GilmanWISCONSIN12019
Rib LakeWISCONSIN12017
HollisterWISCONSIN11973
AmbergWISCONSIN12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.