BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tree Swallow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

35×Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Tree Swallow in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Tree Swallow In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.1–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.1–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.952.6
20271.80.992.6
20281.91.02.7
20291.91.12.7
20301.91.12.8

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EastviewKENTUCKY252025
BelmontINDIANA152021
GlencoeKENTUCKY122018
Cross PlainsINDIANA112024
DixonKENTUCKY112024
EugeneMISSOURI102024
CumbackINDIANA92025
NewberryINDIANA92025
MorganfieldKENTUCKY92025
GranitevilleMISSOURI92018
McbrayerKENTUCKY82022
SpencerINDIANA62024
MillersburgINDIANA62024
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY62024
Belotes BendTENNESSEE62018
KarnakILLINOIS52024
HegiraKENTUCKY52023
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY52022
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY52023
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY52025
PleasurevillKENTUCKY52025
RomeOHIO52021
TullahomaTENNESSEE52015
PimentoINDIANA42025
New PhilaINDIANA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.