BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 37× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

37×Since 1978
125Routes In Region
46Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Tree Swallow has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 37× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029
2.0Projected 2029 index
1.1–2.895% range
±27.5%Backtest error
19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.80.972.6
20261.81.02.6
20271.91.12.7
20281.91.12.7
20292.01.12.8

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Central Hardwoods.
NewberryINDIANA202024
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS172024
BelmontINDIANA152021
EastviewKENTUCKY122024
GlencoeKENTUCKY122018
Cross PlainsINDIANA112024
CyprssINDIANA112019
DixonKENTUCKY112024
EugeneMISSOURI102024
PleasurevillKENTUCKY92024
GranitevilleMISSOURI92018
McbrayerKENTUCKY82022
Wheeler DamALABAMA72023
PimentoINDIANA62024
SpencerINDIANA62024
MillersburgINDIANA62024
CelestineINDIANA62024
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY62024
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY62023
Belotes BendTENNESSEE62018
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE62024
KarnakILLINOIS52024
CumbackINDIANA52017
HegiraKENTUCKY52023
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY52022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.