BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 615% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+615%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tree Swallow has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 615% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Tree Swallow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 3.3–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 3.3–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.93.06.8
20265.03.16.9
20275.13.26.9
20285.13.37.0
20295.23.37.1

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA1052011
AppletonMINNESOTA282024
ChokioMINNESOTA202024
TracyMINNESOTA172024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA132024
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA132023
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA132023
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA112024
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA102024
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA92024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA92024
BeltramiMINNESOTA82024
WorthingtonMINNESOTA82024
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA82023
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA82024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA82024
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA82024
BurchinalIOWA72024
TenneyMINNESOTA72016
Big StoneMINNESOTA72012
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA72023
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA72024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA72022
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA72012
MaynardMINNESOTA62015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.