BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Thick-billed Longspur In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Thick-billed Longspur in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 27× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

27×Since 1969
33Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Thick-billed Longspur has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 27× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Thick-billed Longspur in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.28–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029
1.9Projected 2029 index
0.28–3.595% range
±65.8%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.80.163.4
20261.80.193.4
20271.80.223.4
20281.90.253.5
20291.90.283.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Thick-billed Longspur in Badlands and Prairies.
RoundupMONTANA1652024
Maynard CouleeMONTANA1432024
Coleman CouleeMONTANA302023
Pine TreeWYOMING261995
PineyWYOMING191990
SavagetonWYOMING162019
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA122024
LuskWYOMING112023
NewcastleWYOMING101988
GlenrockWYOMING91977
ShawneeWYOMING72015
RozetWYOMING51991
Wheat BasinMONTANA42017
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA41986
Two DotMONTANA31981
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA31997
Harland FlatWYOMING31995
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA22014
NatronaWYOMING21986
UptonWYOMING21989
Seely 2WYOMING22010
RoyMONTANA12019
CircleMONTANA12018
ShawmutMONTANA12023
FlatwillowMONTANA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.