BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Thick-billed Longspur In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Thick-billed Longspur in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 371% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+371%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Thick-billed Longspur has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 371% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Thick-billed Longspur In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Thick-billed Longspur in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.27–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Thick-billed Longspur in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.27–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.182.6
20261.40.202.6
20271.40.232.6
20281.50.252.7
20291.50.272.7

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Thick-billed Longspur in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WhitlashMONTANA642024
VirgelleMONTANA532024
GildfordMONTANA332024
HarlemMONTANA202021
GlentanaMONTANA192024
GlasgowMONTANA142024
OswegoMONTANA142024
ShelbyMONTANA132024
Hay LakeMONTANA52022
ChinookMONTANA52023
Sun RiverMONTANA32017
SunburstMONTANA21987
MaltaMONTANA21987
ClevelandMONTANA11979
RedstoneMONTANA12018
Great FallsMONTANA12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.