BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swamp Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Swamp Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

14×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swamp Sparrow in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Swamp Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 0.96 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.43–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–0.9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 0.96 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.43–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.630.390.87
20270.640.400.88
20280.650.410.89
20290.660.420.90
20300.670.430.91

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Swamp Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA142011
TracyMINNESOTA132025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA92025
GlyndonMINNESOTA62025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA62025
ChandlerMINNESOTA52025
AppletonMINNESOTA52025
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA52025
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA42025
ScrantonIOWA32003
ChokioMINNESOTA32025
FairmontMINNESOTA32025
Big StoneMINNESOTA32012
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA32022
GryglaMINNESOTA22008
WorthingtonMINNESOTA22022
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA22022
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA22025
NashNORTH-DAKOTA21997
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA22019
KanawhaIOWA12024
ZearingIOWA11977
ClareIOWA11976
GarnerIOWA11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.