BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swamp Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Swamp Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

13×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swamp Sparrow has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Swamp Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.63 (95% range 0.41–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.63 (95% range 0.41–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.590.370.82
20260.600.380.83
20270.610.390.84
20280.620.400.85
20290.630.410.86

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Swamp Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA142011
TracyMINNESOTA102024
GlyndonMINNESOTA82024
AppletonMINNESOTA52024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA52024
SpartaNEBRASKA42021
ScrantonIOWA32003
FairmontMINNESOTA32023
Big StoneMINNESOTA32012
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA32024
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA32022
BurchinalIOWA22003
ChandlerMINNESOTA22023
GryglaMINNESOTA22008
WorthingtonMINNESOTA22022
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA22022
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA22022
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA22023
NashNORTH-DAKOTA21997
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA22019
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
KanawhaIOWA12024
ZearingIOWA11977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.