BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swamp Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Swamp Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

13×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swamp Sparrow has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.63 (95% range 0.41–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.63 (95% range 0.41–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.590.370.82
20260.600.380.83
20270.610.390.84
20280.620.400.85
20290.630.410.86

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Swamp Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA142011
TracyMINNESOTA102024
GlyndonMINNESOTA82024
AppletonMINNESOTA52024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA52024
SpartaNEBRASKA42021
ScrantonIOWA32003
FairmontMINNESOTA32023
Big StoneMINNESOTA32012
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA32024
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA32022
BurchinalIOWA22003
ChandlerMINNESOTA22023
GryglaMINNESOTA22008
WorthingtonMINNESOTA22022
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA22022
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA22022
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA22023
NashNORTH-DAKOTA21997
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA22019
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
KanawhaIOWA12024
ZearingIOWA11977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.