BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Thrush In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Swainson's Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Thrush In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 19–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 19–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026281937
2027281937
2028281937
2029281937
2030281937

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Swainson's Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FisherOREGON2702010
Klickitat MtOREGON1391996
SantiamOREGON1242025
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA1142025
Trask SummitOREGON1042024
OzetteWASHINGTON962025
Fisher 2OREGON912025
CoquilleOREGON882025
HarlanOREGON872009
CraigALASKA852025
Raymond 2WASHINGTON842024
Mendota 3WASHINGTON832025
Riley PeakOREGON822016
Lobster CreekOREGON812025
LoraneOREGON802025
Harlan 2OREGON802025
MolallaOREGON802025
SaladoOREGON682025
Blue RiverOREGON662025
NeiltonWASHINGTON651975
RaymondWASHINGTON652021
HoonahALASKA642024
Redwood N.P.CALIFORNIA642010
GlasgowOREGON642025
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON642025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.