BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Thrush In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Swainson's Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 19–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 19–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025281937
2026281937
2027281937
2028281937
2029281937

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Swainson's Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FisherOREGON2702010
Klickitat MtOREGON1391996
Trask SummitOREGON1042024
Pe EllWASHINGTON982023
CoquilleOREGON952024
SantiamOREGON912024
OzetteWASHINGTON882024
HarlanOREGON872009
Raymond 2WASHINGTON842024
SaladoOREGON822024
Riley PeakOREGON822016
CraigALASKA772024
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON722024
ClearwaterOREGON682021
Fisher 2OREGON652024
MolallaOREGON652024
NeiltonWASHINGTON651975
RaymondWASHINGTON652021
HoonahALASKA642024
Redwood N.P.CALIFORNIA642010
TaholahWASHINGTON642022
MontesandWASHINGTON612024
SitkaALASKA602024
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA582024
WedderburnOREGON582024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.