BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Thrush In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Swainson's Thrush in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+117%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Thrush in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Thrush In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.01–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.01–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.010.12
20270.060.010.12
20280.060.010.12
20290.060.010.12
20300.070.010.12

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Swainson's Thrush in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA132025
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA82002
Cherry SprsPENNSYLVANIA62021
Green BankWEST-VIRGINIA41986
WymerWEST-VIRGINIA32015
Platte CoveNEW-YORK22011
Whig HillPENNSYLVANIA21988
VindexMARYLAND11971
LaurensNEW-YORK11978
McdonoughNEW-YORK11997
OxfordNEW-YORK11969
LisleNEW-YORK12009
E NewarkNEW-YORK12014
CattaraugusNEW-YORK11983
DownsvilleNEW-YORK12005
BusickNORTH-CAROLINA11994
LynchPENNSYLVANIA12024
OdinPENNSYLVANIA12015
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA12007
Russell CityPENNSYLVANIA12025
EldredPENNSYLVANIA12015
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA12016
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA12016
LoguePENNSYLVANIA12016
English CtrPENNSYLVANIA11974

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.