BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Swainson's Hawk In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.03–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.03–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.420.080.75
20260.400.070.74
20270.390.050.72
20280.370.040.71
20290.360.030.69

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SicklesOKLAHOMA122021
HodgesKANSAS72008
MullenNEBRASKA62023
WeinertTEXAS61994
CashionOKLAHOMA52024
RinggoldNEBRASKA42024
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA42001
CoopertonOKLAHOMA42024
WellingtonKANSAS32019
St JohnKANSAS32010
AlbertKANSAS31985
Piester LakeNEBRASKA32023
GordonNEBRASKA32024
ArthurNEBRASKA32024
BrownleeNEBRASKA32024
ChesterOKLAHOMA31988
RosstonOKLAHOMA32018
HunterOKLAHOMA31994
ChildressTEXAS32024
BookerTEXAS32024
RotanTEXAS32011
GirardTEXAS32023
CoatsKANSAS22018
HollenbergKANSAS21976
CovertKANSAS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.