BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+178%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Swainson's Hawk In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.37–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.37–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.341.7
20261.00.341.7
20271.00.351.7
20281.10.361.8
20291.10.371.8

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA112022
WhitlashMONTANA102024
Hay LakeMONTANA82022
RedstoneMONTANA72024
HarlemMONTANA62021
WestbyMONTANA62024
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA61984
VirgelleMONTANA52024
ClevelandMONTANA52024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA52024
MaltaMONTANA42024
ShelbyMONTANA42024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA42024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA42022
SunburstMONTANA32007
OswegoMONTANA32023
Great FallsMONTANA32024
GlentanaMONTANA32024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA32023
AppletonMINNESOTA22010
GlasgowMONTANA22024
GildfordMONTANA22024
Sun RiverMONTANA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.