BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+178%Since 1969
93Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Swainson's Hawk has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.37–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.37–1.895% range
±24.8%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.00.341.7
20261.00.341.7
20271.00.351.7
20281.10.361.8
20291.10.371.8

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Prairie Potholes.
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA112022
WhitlashMONTANA102024
Hay LakeMONTANA82022
RedstoneMONTANA72024
HarlemMONTANA62021
WestbyMONTANA62024
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA61984
VirgelleMONTANA52024
ClevelandMONTANA52024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA52024
MaltaMONTANA42024
ShelbyMONTANA42024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA42024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA42022
SunburstMONTANA32007
OswegoMONTANA32023
Great FallsMONTANA32024
GlentanaMONTANA32024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA32023
AppletonMINNESOTA22010
GlasgowMONTANA22024
GildfordMONTANA22024
Sun RiverMONTANA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.