BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Hawk In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesBirds of prey

Swainson's Hawk in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+162%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Swainson's Hawk In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.36–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.36–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.331.7
20271.00.341.7
20281.00.341.7
20291.00.351.7
20301.10.361.7

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WhitlashMONTANA102024
HarlemMONTANA62021
ShelbyMONTANA62025
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA62025
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA61984
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA42023
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA42025
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA42025
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA42022
Hay LakeMONTANA32024
SunburstMONTANA32007
GlasgowMONTANA32025
GildfordMONTANA32025
AppletonMINNESOTA22010
VirgelleMONTANA22025
ClevelandMONTANA22025
MaltaMONTANA22025
OswegoMONTANA22025
RedstoneMONTANA22025
Great FallsMONTANA22025
GlentanaMONTANA22025
Sun RiverMONTANA22024
LambertMONTANA22025
WinsideNEBRASKA21991
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.