BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Gulf Coastal Prairie has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Summer Tanager in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 143% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+143%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±159.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 143% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.001.1
20260.360.001.1
20270.350.001.1
20280.350.001.1
20290.350.001.1

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
VintonLOUISIANA62009
San PedroTEXAS62023
Vinton 2LOUISIANA32024
EstherLOUISIANA22014
RichardLOUISIANA22016
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA22021
VanderbiltTEXAS21969
LafitteLOUISIANA11977
CreoleLOUISIANA11970
MamouLOUISIANA11976
HackberryLOUISIANA12016
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12002
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA12004
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA11997
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA12013
Hinkles FerTEXAS12018
WinnieTEXAS11993
StowellTEXAS11992
DanburyTEXAS12017
Rock IslandTEXAS12014
Loyola BeachTEXAS12005
ChinquapinTEXAS12022
Port AcresTEXAS12015
Bayside 2TEXAS12000
Moon Lake 2TEXAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.