BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Peninsular Florida has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-11%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Summer Tanager in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Summer Tanager In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.69–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.69–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.722.9
20261.80.712.8
20271.80.702.8
20281.80.692.8
20291.80.692.8

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CitrusFLORIDA262024
OcalaFLORIDA222024
CroomFLORIDA132024
Island GroveFLORIDA112024
NobletonFLORIDA92024
MicanopyFLORIDA81991
GoetheFLORIDA72023
ChassahowitzFLORIDA62024
RomeoFLORIDA52024
St AugustineFLORIDA42024
ArbuckleFLORIDA42014
Mt. OliveFLORIDA42024
Ft MccoyFLORIDA32024
Pennywash CrFLORIDA31993
BelmoreFLORIDA22024
FlemingtonFLORIDA21999
Green SwampFLORIDA22024
Dale MabryFLORIDA11986
Myakka HeadFLORIDA11995
San AntonioFLORIDA12024
Polk CityFLORIDA12016
MabelFLORIDA12011
ChildsFLORIDA12002
ScottsmoorFLORIDA11993
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.