BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Summer Tanager in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Summer Tanager in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Summer Tanager In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 10 (95% range 8.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 10 (95% range 8.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.98.312
202610.08.312
2027108.412
2028108.412
2029108.512

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Summer Tanager in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA582023
LongstreetLOUISIANA232024
GoodwillLOUISIANA202024
NatchezLOUISIANA192024
WechesTEXAS192024
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA182021
Mount UnionLOUISIANA172024
Mt. HermanOKLAHOMA172022
WaldronARKANSAS162024
StarkARKANSAS162024
Magazine MtnARKANSAS152021
DerryLOUISIANA151989
WomackLOUISIANA152024
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA152024
Alexander StTEXAS152024
Bon WierTEXAS152024
EastonLOUISIANA141990
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA142024
CrossroadsTEXAS142024
Powell Park 2TEXAS142024
SimsARKANSAS132024
LockesburgARKANSAS132019
ClayLOUISIANA132024
MortonTEXAS132024
AthensTEXAS132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.