BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Central Hardwoods has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Summer Tanager in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Summer Tanager In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 5.4–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 5.4–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.35.27.5
20266.45.27.5
20276.45.37.6
20286.55.37.6
20296.55.47.7

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CollinwoodTENNESSEE252024
RichlandMISSOURI232021
YellvilleARKANSAS192022
Trace CollinwoodTENNESSEE192018
Trace LewisTENNESSEE182017
ElkmontALABAMA172024
SyracuseMISSOURI172024
Clementine 2MISSOURI172007
IrontonMISSOURI161980
Ozark NfARKANSAS152024
WilliamsvillMISSOURI152024
LincolnMISSOURI152024
DelwoodILLINOIS142024
SanduskyILLINOIS142023
Doe RunMISSOURI142024
MincyMISSOURI142024
SwaimALABAMA132024
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS132023
Cave In RockILLINOIS132024
CascadeMISSOURI132024
ClementineMISSOURI132002
Rueter 2MISSOURI132024
Indian Mound 2TENNESSEE132023
CourtlandALABAMA122023
TrianaALABAMA122012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.