BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Summer Tanager in Central Hardwoods has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Summer Tanager in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Summer Tanager In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 5.4–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 5.4–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.45.27.5
20276.45.27.5
20286.45.37.6
20296.55.37.6
20306.55.47.7

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LincolnMISSOURI252025
Lewis ForestTENNESSEE202025
YellvilleARKANSAS192025
Trace CollinwoodTENNESSEE192018
Trace LewisTENNESSEE182017
SyracuseMISSOURI172024
WilliamsvillMISSOURI172025
Clementine 2MISSOURI172007
IrontonMISSOURI161980
EugeneMISSOURI162025
ZionARKANSAS152025
RudyARKANSAS142025
SanduskyILLINOIS142023
CentertownMISSOURI142025
CollinwoodTENNESSEE142025
Ozark NfARKANSAS132025
BremenILLINOIS132025
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS132023
Cave In RockILLINOIS132024
ClementineMISSOURI132002
Osage BeachMISSOURI132025
Indian Mound 2TENNESSEE132023
CourtlandALABAMA122023
TrianaALABAMA122012
RoyaltonILLINOIS122025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.