BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Steller's Jay In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Steller's Jay in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-56%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Steller's Jay has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Steller's Jay In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.07–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.07–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.710.091.3
20270.700.081.3
20280.700.081.3
20290.690.071.3
20300.690.071.3

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WallowaOREGON182025
DonnellyOREGON162006
Black Mtn.OREGON122004
Hash RockOREGON92025
OchocoOREGON72025
SkalkahoMONTANA61998
MaybellCOLORADO51970
OchocoOREGON51982
SaveryWYOMING51989
AveryIDAHO42025
PierceIDAHO42007
GreenoughMONTANA42003
GraniteOREGON42025
Howard Mdws.OREGON42025
UnityOREGON42025
DesolationOREGON42025
Cape HornIDAHO32005
Baldy MountainIDAHO32016
Yellow PineIDAHO32012
SunbeamIDAHO32013
ArleeMONTANA32022
EllistonMONTANA32019
Painted RockMONTANA32022
Hebgen LakeMONTANA32025
FloraOREGON32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.