BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sooty Grouse In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGame birds

Sooty Grouse in Great Basin has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-31%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sooty Grouse in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Sooty Grouse In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sooty Grouse in Great Basin is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±124.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sooty Grouse in Great Basin is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.17
20270.060.000.17
20280.060.000.17
20290.060.000.17
20300.060.000.17

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Sooty Grouse in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
No CascadesWASHINGTON82019
SnowdenWASHINGTON42025
Camp ShermanOREGON31996
Cascade RivWASHINGTON32006
PaisleyOREGON22023
SistersOREGON22024
LakeviewOREGON22023
RonaldWASHINGTON22025
EllensburgWASHINGTON22018
MazamaWASHINGTON22010
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA12000
TionestaCALIFORNIA12018
Barnes ValOREGON11984
Mt HoodOREGON12006
Wizard FallsOREGON12025
Bly 2OREGON12008
Picture FlatOREGON12025
NewhalemWASHINGTON12023
RimrockWASHINGTON12023
KendallWASHINGTON12003
GlacierWASHINGTON12024
White ChuckWASHINGTON12019
Blewett PassWASHINGTON12018
Suiattle RivWASHINGTON12019
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.