BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+7%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
390Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 21 (95% range 17–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 21 (95% range 17–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221726
2026221726
2027211726
2028211726
2029211726

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY1391997
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY821995
MarionVIRGINIA821982
CattaraugusNEW-YORK792019
KehoeKENTUCKY781992
OmegaOHIO742024
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA672024
NewbernVIRGINIA671982
PortersvillePENNSYLVANIA651988
MeadlandWEST-VIRGINIA652024
S Berne 2NEW-YORK632024
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA622024
ClintonWEST-VIRGINIA622024
PattonPENNSYLVANIA612024
DrydenNEW-YORK592024
DresdenOHIO592024
SardisPENNSYLVANIA591974
VirginiaPENNSYLVANIA572024
MonongahWEST-VIRGINIA572022
McdonaldWEST-VIRGINIA572023
SheloctaPENNSYLVANIA562024
StonecreekOHIO552024
RidgwayPENNSYLVANIA552018
Plesant GrovPENNSYLVANIA542024
Corryton RdTENNESSEE542019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.