BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Central Hardwoods has risen sharply: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has risen sharply in Central Hardwoods: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 8.1–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.1–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 8.1–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.915
2026117.915
2027118.015
2028118.015
2029118.115

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CelestineINDIANA702024
ScottsburgINDIANA592024
New PhilaINDIANA552024
WashingtonINDIANA522024
SpencerINDIANA492024
BrazilINDIANA462024
GoshenKENTUCKY461999
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY442023
EvansvilleINDIANA432022
EastviewKENTUCKY422024
MillersburgINDIANA412024
NewberryINDIANA412024
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS402024
AzaliaINDIANA362024
CyprssINDIANA352024
VevayINDIANA332024
GeorgiaINDIANA332024
YorkILLINOIS312024
MerrimacKENTUCKY312024
HodgenvilleKENTUCKY302003
Indian SpgsINDIANA292024
Cross PlainsINDIANA292024
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY292023
KeysburgKENTUCKY282024
PleasurevillKENTUCKY282024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.