BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
248Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 15 (95% range 7.4–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.4–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 15 (95% range 7.4–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025167.924
2026167.824
2027167.724
2028167.624
2029157.423

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarveysburgOHIO1011996
BrookvilleINDIANA672024
DunlapOHIO661988
MilroyINDIANA622024
Witts StationINDIANA602024
Davis CornerIOWA592024
Marion 2OHIO542024
RaymondWISCONSIN542024
WallaceINDIANA532024
JamestownINDIANA512024
Cedar ValleyIOWA511997
WilmingtonOHIO501996
DarrtownOHIO492021
TecumsehOHIO481982
JanesvilleILLINOIS472024
MarionOHIO472023
AshleyOHIO472018
MaplewoodINDIANA462021
Ash RidgeOHIO462021
MuncieINDIANA451997
MontpelierINDIANA452024
NewportOHIO451994
FriendswoodINDIANA432024
New CastleINDIANA432024
RobinsonILLINOIS422023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.