BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Song Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
249Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 15 (95% range 7.4–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.4–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 15 (95% range 7.4–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026167.924
2027167.724
2028167.623
2029157.523
2030157.423

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarveysburgOHIO1011996
Witts StationINDIANA752025
BrookvilleINDIANA672025
DunlapOHIO661988
Marion 2OHIO602025
JamestownINDIANA562025
WallaceINDIANA532024
AndersonINDIANA512025
Cedar ValleyIOWA511997
WilmingtonOHIO501996
FultonOHIO492025
DarrtownOHIO492021
JanesvilleILLINOIS482025
New BrunswickINDIANA482025
BloomvilleOHIO482025
TecumsehOHIO481982
MarionOHIO472023
AshleyOHIO472018
CubaINDIANA462025
MaplewoodINDIANA462021
Ash RidgeOHIO462021
MuncieINDIANA451997
MontpelierINDIANA452024
NewportOHIO451994
FriendswoodINDIANA432024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.