BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Snowy Egret In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Snowy Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 312% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+312%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Snowy Egret has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 312% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025110.0038
2026110.0038
2027110.0038
2028110.0038
2029110.0038

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Snowy Egret in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MauriceLOUISIANA1802024
WoodlawnLOUISIANA1022021
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA561982
JuniorLOUISIANA551991
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA532011
CreoleLOUISIANA521987
RichardLOUISIANA292024
Forked IslandLOUISIANA232024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA202019
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS152023
San PedroTEXAS102016
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS102024
StowellTEXAS82023
VintonLOUISIANA72008
IndianolaTEXAS72024
GlencoeLOUISIANA62018
Rock IslandTEXAS62024
Bayside 2TEXAS62004
EstherLOUISIANA52024
KaplanLOUISIANA52023
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA52024
Goliad PrairieTEXAS52016
Oyster LakeTEXAS42024
Bayside 3TEXAS42022
LafitteLOUISIANA31991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.