BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Snowy Egret In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsWetland birds

Snowy Egret in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-58%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Snowy Egret has fallen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Snowy Egret In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 63% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 63% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.002.7
20260.130.002.7
20270.100.002.6
20280.080.002.6
20290.050.002.6

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Snowy Egret in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red RockARIZONA71999
ArabyARIZONA62022
CimaCALIFORNIA61977
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA52003
Palo VerdeARIZONA32012
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA32024
BrawleyCALIFORNIA32010
LagunaARIZONA22019
AjoARIZONA22001
Ajo 2ARIZONA22019
FlorenceARIZONA11968
Casa GrandeARIZONA12018
Cutter 2ARIZONA12016
Red Rock 2ARIZONA12019
Calif CityCALIFORNIA11995
NilandCALIFORNIA12024
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA12018
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA12010
Ash MeadowsNEVADA12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.