BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Snowy Egret In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Snowy Egret in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Snowy Egret has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Snowy Egret In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.006.7
20262.50.006.7
20272.50.006.7
20282.50.006.7
20292.50.006.7

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Snowy Egret in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano 2FLORIDA1212011
Wildernes PkFLORIDA302014
WebbFLORIDA262024
SandyFLORIDA192015
Holey LandFLORIDA132024
Devils GardnFLORIDA122024
Mabel 2FLORIDA112019
KenansvilleFLORIDA92006
Sunniland GrFLORIDA82021
MicanopyFLORIDA61978
RomeoFLORIDA62024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA62024
Boca RatonFLORIDA61982
Pennywash CrFLORIDA62018
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA62022
Merritt IslFLORIDA62011
St LucieFLORIDA52024
Ridge HarborFLORIDA52024
IndiantownFLORIDA42015
AndytownFLORIDA41994
AlvaFLORIDA42023
Weaver StnFLORIDA42018
CroomFLORIDA42004
SalvistaFLORIDA31979
GardnerFLORIDA31997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.