BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Snowy Egret In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Snowy Egret in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Snowy Egret has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.000.92
20260.340.000.92
20270.340.000.92
20280.340.000.92
20290.340.000.92

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Snowy Egret in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA242005
ElbertaALABAMA172022
Alabama PtALABAMA162002
GrangeburgALABAMA152024
CottonGEORGIA111984
LatimerMISSISSIPPI112004
DaleSOUTH-CAROLINA91998
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA92024
JacksonboroGEORGIA82016
CovingtonFLORIDA72001
DickeyGEORGIA52018
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA52024
Jarvisburg 2NORTH-CAROLINA52019
MadridALABAMA42000
PinettaFLORIDA42015
Port St Joe 2FLORIDA42017
St Vincent IFLORIDA42024
StocktonGEORGIA41977
PineoraGEORGIA42010
Coffee CoGEORGIA41995
Dauphin IsALABAMA31990
FoleyALABAMA31972
EufaulaALABAMA31999
OkefenokeeGEORGIA31984
NewtonGEORGIA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.