BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Snowy Egret In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWetland birds

Snowy Egret in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Snowy Egret has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±141.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.150.000.60
20250.150.000.60
20260.150.000.60
20270.150.000.60
20280.150.000.60

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Snowy Egret in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SicklesOKLAHOMA202021
ErickOKLAHOMA102017
PhrosoOKLAHOMA81995
BerwetKANSAS42008
JetOKLAHOMA42022
WeinertTEXAS41993
CharlieTEXAS42017
GraybackTEXAS31998
RandlettOKLAHOMA21993
CookietownOKLAHOMA22002
VerdenOKLAHOMA21992
WellingtonKANSAS12019
DaltonKANSAS12011
AlbertKANSAS12023
Crescent LkNEBRASKA12010
ReedOKLAHOMA12016
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA12010
DouglasOKLAHOMA12016
CashionOKLAHOMA12003
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA12009
HaskellTEXAS12022
Beaver CreekTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.