BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-52%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-shinned Hawk in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.05
20260.020.000.05
20270.020.000.05
20280.020.000.05
20290.020.000.05

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BaronOKLAHOMA31970
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY21998
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY22007
HillsboroALABAMA11984
Wheeler DamALABAMA12010
FultonARKANSAS12008
AvocaARKANSAS11997
YellvilleARKANSAS12010
Ozark NfARKANSAS12009
BelknapILLINOIS11998
SanduskyILLINOIS11998
Cave In RockILLINOIS11998
BelmontINDIANA12024
SpencerINDIANA12002
CumbackINDIANA11989
CelestineINDIANA11993
Clear SpringINDIANA12004
New PhilaINDIANA12001
CorydonINDIANA11980
EvansvilleINDIANA11970
CantonKENTUCKY12012
KeysburgKENTUCKY11998
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY12022
MillionKENTUCKY11985
McbrayerKENTUCKY12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.