BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-shinned Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±165.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.04
20250.010.000.04
20260.010.000.04
20270.010.000.04
20280.010.000.04

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MoselleMISSOURI32019
ColumbiaILLINOIS21969
EldredILLINOIS22008
WashtaIOWA21995
OlatheKANSAS22001
McfallMISSOURI22017
KingsvilleMISSOURI22006
Harveysburg 2OHIO22001
GeneseoILLINOIS11972
PutnamILLINOIS11988
NewarkILLINOIS11993
GulfportILLINOIS12011
Terre HauteILLINOIS12016
BartonvilleILLINOIS12023
MackinawILLINOIS12007
MilfordILLINOIS11970
HumboldtILLINOIS12002
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS12009
ShannonILLINOIS11997
SherrardILLINOIS12012
EubanksILLINOIS12005
AthensILLINOIS12000
MonticelloINDIANA11991
MiddletownINDIANA11973
FriendswoodINDIANA11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.