BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sedge Wren In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Sedge Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sedge Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Sedge Wren In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.44–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.44–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.44–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.483.3
20271.90.473.3
20281.90.473.3
20291.90.463.3
20301.80.443.2

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Sedge Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HolwayWISCONSIN191989
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA172025
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN172025
Omro 2WISCONSIN112024
Brook ParkMINNESOTA102025
N AndoverWISCONSIN101996
EvergreenMINNESOTA92025
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN82023
PrincetonMINNESOTA72025
New LondonMINNESOTA62024
UnityWISCONSIN62025
VeronaWISCONSIN62025
AshbyMINNESOTA52021
MatherWISCONSIN52023
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN42006
KnappMINNESOTA42025
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN42025
Newburg CrnsWISCONSIN42022
Rolling PrWISCONSIN42015
HebronWISCONSIN42025
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA32025
CumberlandWISCONSIN32025
GilmantonWISCONSIN32009
CadottWISCONSIN32025
ManawaWISCONSIN32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.