BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sedge Wren In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Sedge Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sedge Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Sedge Wren In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.50–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.50–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.543.3
20261.90.533.3
20271.90.523.3
20281.90.513.3
20291.90.503.3

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Sedge Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brook ParkMINNESOTA272024
CumberlandWISCONSIN212024
HolwayWISCONSIN191989
PrincetonMINNESOTA142024
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN132024
Omro 2WISCONSIN112024
KnappMINNESOTA102019
N AndoverWISCONSIN101996
St StephenMINNESOTA82016
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN82024
UnityWISCONSIN82024
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN82023
VeronaWISCONSIN82024
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA72024
New LondonMINNESOTA62024
EvergreenMINNESOTA52024
AshbyMINNESOTA52021
MatherWISCONSIN52023
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN42006
MerrillWISCONSIN42024
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN42024
Newburg CrnsWISCONSIN42022
KendallWISCONSIN42023
Rolling PrWISCONSIN42015
GilmantonWISCONSIN32009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.