BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Seaside Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Seaside Sparrow in Texas has surged: up 217% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+217%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Seaside Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Seaside Sparrow in Texas. See the full index history below.

Seaside Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Seaside Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 84% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-84%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Seaside Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 84% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.15
20270.020.000.15
20280.020.000.15
20290.010.000.15
20300.010.000.14

Seaside Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Seaside Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chinquapin620251995
Padre Island Pais520152015
Oyster Lake520251995
Bayside 2319971997
Bayside219941994
L. Atascosa Nwr120252004
Indianola120121982

Seaside Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamadelawarefloridalouisianamarylandmassachusettsnew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinasouth-carolinavirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.