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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Seaside Sparrow Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Seaside Sparrow in Florida has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-59%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Seaside Sparrow Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Seaside Sparrow in Florida. See the full index history below.

Seaside Sparrow Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Seaside Sparrow in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±777.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±777.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Seaside Sparrow in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±777.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.40
20260.150.000.40
20270.150.000.40
20280.150.000.40
20290.160.000.40

Seaside Sparrow Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Seaside Sparrow in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Vincent I920191995
Aripeka320081989
Port St Joe219971987
Flamingo120071986
Steinhatchee120231968
Alligator Pt120241989

Seaside Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamadelawarelouisianamarylandmassachusettsnew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.