BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scaled Quail In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Scaled Quail in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scaled Quail has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.70.0022
20268.40.0022
20278.10.0021
20287.80.0021
20297.50.0021

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Scaled Quail in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DemingNEW-MEXICO521975
Black GapTEXAS392023
LongfellowTEXAS392024
PumpvilleTEXAS372024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO352024
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO322021
Casa PiedraTEXAS312023
RoswellNEW-MEXICO302023
Ft. DavisTEXAS282023
GageNEW-MEXICO272024
MarfaTEXAS252024
ToyahvaleTEXAS232024
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO222023
ComstockTEXAS222023
Delaware CrkTEXAS222015
Salt FlatTEXAS212015
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO192024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO182024
GirvinTEXAS182024
AltudaTEXAS172023
ShafterTEXAS161985
Hot SpringsTEXAS152024
LangtryTEXAS152000
Bear MtnTEXAS142024
Devils R CynTEXAS132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.