BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scaled Quail In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGame birds

Scaled Quail in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scaled Quail in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Scaled Quail In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.40.0023
20279.10.0023
20288.80.0022
20298.50.0022
20308.20.0022

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Scaled Quail in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PumpvilleTEXAS1032025
Casa PiedraTEXAS702025
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO652025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO632025
ToyahvaleTEXAS532025
DemingNEW-MEXICO521975
Black GapTEXAS352025
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO322021
MarfaTEXAS302025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO272025
ComstockTEXAS272025
GirvinTEXAS232025
Devils R CynTEXAS232025
Coyanda DrawTEXAS232025
Delaware CrkTEXAS222015
Ft. DavisTEXAS222025
Salt FlatTEXAS212015
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO202025
MarathonTEXAS202025
AltudaTEXAS172023
Hot SpringsTEXAS162025
ShafterTEXAS161985
LangtryTEXAS152000
RodeoNEW-MEXICO132025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO111977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.